Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-03-07 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 52.5%

TBL: 47.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.03

TBL: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TBL
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2