Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-03-07 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

TOR: 49.9%

TBL: 50.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.06

TBL: 3.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	3	1.24
1	TBL	17	2	1.66
2	TOR	11	0	0.58
2	TBL	9	0	0.65
3	TOR	12	0	0.96
3	TBL	18	1	2.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.5