Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2026-03-07 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:00 PM EST
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 56.7%
TBL: 43.3%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.32
TBL: 2.91
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | TOR | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.941 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs TBL: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | TBL 4 - 2 TOR | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-08 | TOR 2 - 0 TBL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-04-09 | TBL 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | TBL |
| 2025-01-20 | TOR 5 - 3 TBL | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-11-30 | TBL 3 - 5 TOR | TOR | TBL |
🔮 Game Preview
This game is scheduled for 2026-03-07 at 7:00 PM EST.
Check back after the game for in-game win probability analysis and post-game results.