Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-03-07 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 51.4%

TBL: 48.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.35

TBL: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	TOR	TBL
Season SV%	0.884	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	33	28	5	84.8%	4.37	3	-0.63
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	29	27	2	93.1%	2.78	3	0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	3	1.24
1	TBL	17	2	1.66
2	TOR	11	0	0.58
2	TBL	9	0	0.65
3	TOR	12	0	0.96
3	TBL	18	1	2.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown