Utah Hockey Club at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2026-03-07 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 5 Utah Hockey Club (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 51.1%

UTA: 48.9%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 2.93

UTA: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	CBJ	UTA
Season SV%	0.877	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	4.04	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	25	20	5	80.0%	2.38	2	-2.62
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	31	27	4	87.1%	3.16	3	-0.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • CBJ at home vs UTA: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	CBJ 1 - 4 UTA	UTA	UTA
2026-03-07	CBJ 4 - 5 UTA	UTA	CBJ
2026-01-11	UTA 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	UTA
2025-02-06	CBJ 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-01-31	UTA 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	13	1	0.66
1	UTA	15	1	0.87
2	CBJ	17	2	1.52
2	UTA	8	0	0.52
3	CBJ	16	0	0.92
3	UTA	16	1	0.81
4	CBJ	1	0	0.06
4	UTA	1	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 5 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1