Montreal Canadiens at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2026-03-07 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

LAK: 66.2%

MTL: 33.8%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.58

MTL: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	LAK	MTL
Season SV%	0.913	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.27	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	23	19	4	82.6%	2.85	2	-1.15
MTL	Jakub Dobes	39	36	3	92.3%	4.36	0	1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • LAK at home vs MTL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	LAK 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	LAK
2025-11-11	MTL 1 - 5 LAK	LAK	MTL
2025-02-05	LAK 6 - 3 MTL	LAK	LAK
2024-10-17	MTL 1 - 4 LAK	LAK	LAK
2023-12-07	MTL 0 - 4 LAK	LAK	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	25	0	2.07
1	MTL	4	0	0.12
2	LAK	20	0	0.86
2	MTL	12	0	0.86
3	LAK	24	0	1.43
3	MTL	14	2	1.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown