Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-03-07 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 45.7%

CAR: 54.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.94

CAR: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	CGY	CAR
Season SV%	0.901	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	29	25	4	86.2%	2.90	0	-1.10
CAR	Brandon Bussi	25	20	5	80.0%	2.34	1	-2.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs CAR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	CGY 5 - 4 CAR	CGY	CAR
2025-11-30	CAR 1 - 0 CGY	CAR	CAR
2025-03-02	CAR 2 - 1 CGY	CAR	CAR
2024-10-24	CGY 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2024-03-10	CAR 7 - 2 CGY	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	7	0	0.17
1	CAR	18	0	1.11
2	CGY	17	1	1.57
2	CAR	11	0	0.62
3	CGY	9	0	0.61
3	CAR	18	0	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown