New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-03-07 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 2 New York Islanders (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 44.6%

NYI: 55.4%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.24

NYI: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	SJS	NYI
Season SV%	0.896	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	34	32	2	94.1%	2.46	1	0.46
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	31	30	1	96.8%	2.84	1	1.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • SJS at home vs NYI: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	SJS 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-10-21	NYI 4 - 3 SJS	NYI	NYI
2025-03-08	SJS 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-01-18	NYI 4 - 1 SJS	NYI	NYI
2024-03-07	SJS 2 - 7 NYI	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	13	0	1.05
1	NYI	15	0	0.65
2	SJS	13	1	0.91
2	NYI	14	0	0.64
3	SJS	13	0	0.60
3	NYI	16	1	0.97
4	SJS	6	0	0.28
4	NYI	2	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 1 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1