Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-03-08 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 8 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 48.0%

TBL: 52.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.94

TBL: 4.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BUF at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	1	0.61
1	TBL	12	1	0.62
2	BUF	20	0	1.47
2	TBL	15	3	1.86
3	BUF	22	2	2.23
3	TBL	18	1	2.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 15.0

Expected: 8.0

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 8 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.9 - 4.0