Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-03-08 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 8 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 49.9%

TBL: 50.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.69

TBL: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	BUF	TBL
Season SV%	0.903	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	29	22	7	75.9%	4.50	5	-2.50
TBL	Jonas Johansson	42	34	8	81.0%	4.30	3	-3.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BUF at home vs TBL: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	1	0.61
1	TBL	12	1	0.62
2	BUF	20	0	1.47
2	TBL	15	3	1.86
3	BUF	22	2	2.23
3	TBL	18	1	2.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 15.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown