Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-03-08 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 79.4%

CHI: 20.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.71

CHI: 2.26

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Stat	DAL	CHI
Season SV%	0.912	0.873
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.44	4.02

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	19	16	3	84.2%	2.13	1	-0.87
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	31	27	4	87.1%	3.73	4	-0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DAL at home vs CHI: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	DAL 4 - 3 CHI	DAL	DAL
2026-01-01	CHI 4 - 3 DAL	CHI	CHI
2025-12-27	DAL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	DAL
2024-12-29	CHI 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-27	CHI 6 - 2 DAL	CHI	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	1	1.10
1	CHI	7	0	0.64
2	DAL	13	1	1.27
2	CHI	12	0	0.78
3	DAL	13	2	1.26
3	CHI	9	1	0.71
4	DAL	1	0	0.09
4	CHI	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 79.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.3