Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-03-08 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 59.6%

EDM: 40.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.28

EDM: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • VGK at home vs EDM: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	16	0	0.84
1	EDM	14	2	1.31
2	VGK	19	0	1.32
2	EDM	8	2	0.85
3	VGK	11	0	0.44
3	EDM	12	2	2.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0