Calgary Flames at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-03-09 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 7 - 3 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 60.3%

CGY: 39.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.32

CGY: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	WSH	CGY
Season SV%	0.913	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	26	23	3	88.5%	3.33	6	0.33
CGY	Devin Cooley	29	22	7	75.9%	4.66	5	-2.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	WSH 7 - 3 CGY	WSH	WSH
2026-01-23	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-02-25	WSH 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WSH
2025-01-28	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	CGY
2024-03-18	CGY 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	2	1.62
1	CGY	13	0	0.37
2	WSH	12	1	1.03
2	CGY	23	6	2.70
3	WSH	16	2	2.00
3	CGY	9	0	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown