Utah Hockey Club at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2026-03-09 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Utah Hockey Club (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 39.6%

UTA: 60.4%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.79

UTA: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

D. Commesso

UTA

Vitek Vanecek - 2-9-1 | 0.879 SV% | 2.92 GAA

Stat	CHI	UTA
Season SV%	—	0.879
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.92

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	D. Commesso	25	23	2	92.0%	2.56	1	0.56
UTA	Vitek Vanecek	26	23	3	88.5%	3.46	1	0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs UTA: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	UTA 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	UTA
2026-03-09	CHI 3 - 2 UTA	CHI	UTA
2026-03-01	UTA 0 - 4 CHI	CHI	UTA
2025-10-13	CHI 3 - 1 UTA	CHI	CHI
2025-03-30	CHI 2 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	12	0	0.89
1	UTA	9	0	0.75
2	CHI	17	1	1.61
2	UTA	13	1	0.84
3	CHI	13	0	0.80
3	UTA	13	0	0.75
4	CHI	2	0	0.15
4	UTA	2	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3