San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-03-10 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 3 San Jose Sharks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 67.8%

SJS: 32.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.47

SJS: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	BUF	SJS
Season SV%	0.906	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	20	17	3	85.0%	2.22	2	-0.78
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	26	20	6	76.9%	3.69	2	-2.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs SJS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	SJS 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	SJS
2026-03-10	BUF 6 - 3 SJS	BUF	BUF
2025-03-04	BUF 2 - 6 SJS	SJS	BUF
2024-11-23	SJS 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-01-27	SJS 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	0	0.81
1	SJS	11	1	0.82
2	BUF	18	1	1.79
2	SJS	14	1	0.96
3	BUF	9	1	1.09
3	SJS	12	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown