Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-03-10 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

MTL: 63.7%

TOR: 36.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.32

TOR: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 74%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • MTL at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	27	3	2.17
1	TOR	6	0	0.20
2	MTL	11	2	1.06
2	TOR	15	1	1.05
3	MTL	14	3	2.53
3	TOR	8	0	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6