Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-03-10 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 69.7%

CBJ: 30.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.42

CBJ: 2.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Stat	TBL	CBJ
Season SV%	0.913	0.877
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	4.04

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	27	5	84.4%	4.63	6	-0.37
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	18	16	2	88.9%	1.85	1	-0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TBL at home vs CBJ: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	TBL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TBL
2026-01-24	CBJ 8 - 5 TBL	CBJ	TBL
2025-10-18	CBJ 3 - 2 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-03-04	TBL 6 - 2 CBJ	TBL	TBL
2024-12-17	TBL 5 - 3 CBJ	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	9	1	0.86
1	CBJ	12	1	1.26
2	TBL	13	0	0.75
2	CBJ	15	1	1.04
3	TBL	7	0	0.24
3	CBJ	17	4	2.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown