Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-03-10 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 71.5%

CBJ: 28.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.61

CBJ: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TBL at home vs CBJ: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	TBL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TBL
2026-01-24	CBJ 8 - 5 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-18	CBJ 3 - 2 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-03-04	TBL 6 - 2 CBJ	TBL	TBL
2024-12-17	TBL 5 - 3 CBJ	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	9	1	0.86
1	CBJ	12	1	1.26
2	TBL	13	0	0.75
2	CBJ	15	1	1.04
3	TBL	7	0	0.24
3	CBJ	17	4	2.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1