Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-03-10 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 68.2%

PIT: 31.8%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.39

PIT: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	CAR	PIT
Season SV%	0.865	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	30	25	5	83.3%	5.57	4	0.57
PIT	Stuart Skinner	47	41	6	87.2%	8.28	7	2.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • CAR at home vs PIT: 6-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	PIT 1 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-03-18	CAR 6 - 5 PIT	CAR	CAR
2026-03-10	CAR 5 - 4 PIT	CAR	CAR
2025-12-30	PIT 5 - 1 CAR	PIT	PIT
2025-01-05	CAR 4 - 3 PIT	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	24	2	2.07
1	PIT	16	0	1.26
2	CAR	16	1	1.42
2	PIT	21	2	2.20
3	CAR	22	2	2.36
3	PIT	10	1	0.64
4	CAR	3	0	0.40
4	PIT	4	0	0.48
5	CAR	3	2	2.04
5	PIT	3	1	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8