New York Islanders at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-03-10 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 4 New York Islanders (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 50.4%

NYI: 49.6%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.23

NYI: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	STL	NYI
Season SV%	0.901	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	50	46	4	92.0%	5.33	4	1.33
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	23	20	3	87.0%	2.72	2	-0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • STL at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	STL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	STL
2025-11-22	NYI 1 - 2 STL	STL	STL
2024-11-23	NYI 3 - 1 STL	NYI	NYI
2024-10-17	STL 1 - 0 NYI	STL	STL
2024-03-05	NYI 4 - 2 STL	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	7	1	0.79
1	NYI	22	0	1.18
2	STL	13	0	1.15
2	NYI	16	1	1.37
3	STL	12	1	0.74
3	NYI	21	3	2.55
4	STL	1	0	0.03
4	NYI	3	0	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 3 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8