Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-03-10 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 41.5%

VGK: 58.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.19

VGK: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • DAL at home vs VGK: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	8	1	0.67
1	VGK	6	0	0.16
2	DAL	15	2	1.97
2	VGK	15	0	0.97
3	DAL	6	1	0.93
3	VGK	16	0	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3