Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-03-10 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 55.7%

ANA: 44.3%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.29

ANA: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	WPG	ANA
Season SV%	0.907	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	35	31	4	88.6%	4.05	2	0.05
ANA	Lukas Dostal	13	12	1	92.3%	1.78	0	0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • WPG at home vs ANA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	WPG 1 - 4 ANA	ANA	WPG
2026-02-27	ANA 5 - 4 WPG	ANA	ANA
2025-11-09	ANA 4 - 1 WPG	ANA	ANA
2025-04-16	WPG 2 - 1 ANA	WPG	WPG
2025-01-02	WPG 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	6	0	0.47
1	ANA	12	0	0.92
2	WPG	10	0	0.56
2	ANA	23	0	1.41
3	WPG	13	0	0.75
3	ANA	13	2	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown