Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-03-10 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 57.9%

EDM: 42.1%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.41

EDM: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 54%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • COL at home vs EDM: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	14	0	0.84
1	EDM	11	1	0.94
2	COL	17	0	0.96
2	EDM	17	0	1.27
3	COL	14	1	1.06
3	EDM	9	2	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0