Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-03-10 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 58.1%

EDM: 41.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.37

EDM: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

Stat	COL	EDM
Season SV%	0.924	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	3.28

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	24	20	4	83.3%	3.64	3	-0.36
EDM	Connor Ingram	30	27	3	90.0%	2.86	1	-0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • COL at home vs EDM: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	14	0	0.84
1	EDM	11	1	0.94
2	COL	17	0	0.96
2	EDM	17	0	1.27
3	COL	14	1	1.06
3	EDM	9	2	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown