Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-03-11 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (75% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 75.4%

MTL: 24.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.73

MTL: 2.54

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

Stat	OTT	MTL
Season SV%	0.881	0.904
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.64

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	23	20	3	87.0%	4.25	5	1.25
MTL	Jacob Fowler	34	32	2	94.1%	3.75	2	1.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • OTT at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	OTT
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	12	2	1.74
1	MTL	12	0	0.66
2	OTT	15	0	1.05
2	MTL	17	2	1.57
3	OTT	17	0	0.96
3	MTL	12	3	2.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 75.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown