Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-03-11 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (79% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 78.7%

MTL: 21.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.81

MTL: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • OTT at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	12	2	1.74
1	MTL	12	0	0.66
2	OTT	15	0	1.05
2	MTL	17	2	1.57
3	OTT	17	0	0.96
3	MTL	12	3	2.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 78.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9