Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-03-11 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 1 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 60.6%

WSH: 39.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.22

WSH: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	PHI	WSH
Season SV%	0.868	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.09	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	22	21	1	95.5%	3.04	0	2.04
WSH	Logan Thompson	22	18	4	81.8%	3.72	4	-0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PHI at home vs WSH: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	0	0.71
1	WSH	14	0	0.79
2	PHI	11	1	1.16
2	WSH	14	0	0.94
3	PHI	8	3	1.85
3	WSH	24	0	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown