Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2026-03-11 • Xfinity Mobile Arena
Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 1 Washington Capitals
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 64.2%
WSH: 35.8%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.04
WSH: 2.61
Total Goals
Median: 4.6
Over 5.5: 34%
Over 6.5: 19%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | PHI | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.914 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.877 | 0.884 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PHI at home vs WSH: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | WSH 6 - 4 PHI | WSH | WSH |
| 2026-03-11 | PHI 4 - 1 WSH | PHI | PHI |
| 2026-02-25 | WSH 3 - 1 PHI | WSH | WSH |
| 2026-02-03 | PHI 4 - 2 WSH | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-03-20 | WSH 3 - 2 PHI | WSH | WSH |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 64.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 1 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.0 - 2.6
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.