Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-03-11 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 1 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

PHI: 56.4%

WSH: 43.6%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.21

WSH: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PHI at home vs WSH: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	PHI
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	0	0.71
1	WSH	14	0	0.79
2	PHI	11	1	1.16
2	WSH	14	0	0.94
3	PHI	8	3	1.85
3	WSH	24	0	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 1 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8