San Jose Sharks at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 4 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 52.0%

SJS: 48.0%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.17

SJS: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	BOS	SJS
Season SV%	0.903	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	28	24	4	85.7%	3.62	3	-0.38
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	41	39	2	95.1%	3.66	0	1.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BOS at home vs SJS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	BOS 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	BOS
2025-11-23	SJS 3 - 1 BOS	SJS	BOS
2025-03-22	SJS 3 - 1 BOS	SJS	SJS
2025-01-20	BOS 6 - 3 SJS	BOS	BOS
2023-11-30	BOS 3 - 0 SJS	BOS	BOS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	22	0	1.27
1	SJS	8	0	0.81
2	BOS	16	0	0.92
2	SJS	16	2	1.46
3	BOS	20	0	1.47
3	SJS	14	1	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown