Anaheim Ducks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 44.0%

ANA: 56.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.21

ANA: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs ANA: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	ANA 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	ANA
2026-03-12	TOR 6 - 4 ANA	TOR	ANA
2025-03-30	ANA 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	ANA
2024-12-12	TOR 3 - 2 ANA	TOR	TOR
2024-02-17	TOR 9 - 2 ANA	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	1	1.15
1	ANA	31	5	3.11
2	TOR	16	0	1.33
2	ANA	14	0	0.70
3	TOR	14	1	1.58
3	ANA	17	1	1.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2