Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 67.8%

DET: 32.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.77

DET: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	TBL	DET
Season SV%	0.913	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	24	1	96.0%	2.37	1	1.37
DET	John Gibson	29	25	4	86.2%	4.09	3	0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TBL at home vs DET: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	TBL
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.61
1	DET	10	0	0.30
2	TBL	19	0	1.06
2	DET	20	1	1.53
3	TBL	15	3	2.42
3	DET	12	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown