Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2026-03-12 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 66.8%
DET: 33.2%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.47
DET: 2.65
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
DET
John Gibson - 29-22-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | TBL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.893 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.862 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.927 | 0.895 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.97 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs DET: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | TBL 4 - 3 DET | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-03-12 | TBL 4 - 1 DET | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-28 | DET 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-17 | DET 2 - 1 TBL | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-11 | TBL 3 - 4 DET | DET | TBL |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 66.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.5 - 2.6
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