Calgary Flames at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 4 - 5 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 56.6%

CGY: 43.4%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.10

CGY: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • NJD at home vs CGY: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	NJD 4 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD
2026-01-19	CGY 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	CGY
2025-03-20	NJD 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD
2024-11-01	CGY 3 - 0 NJD	CGY	NJD
2024-02-08	NJD 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	13	0	0.94
1	CGY	11	0	0.62
2	NJD	16	1	1.21
2	CGY	14	1	1.55
3	NJD	27	1	1.75
3	CGY	9	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 4 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9