St. Louis Blues at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 69.7%

STL: 30.3%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.79

STL: 2.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	CAR	STL
Season SV%	0.901	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Brandon Bussi	17	14	3	82.4%	2.25	2	-0.75
STL	Jordan Binnington	32	31	1	96.9%	3.19	3	2.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CAR at home vs STL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	CAR 1 - 3 STL	STL	CAR
2026-01-13	STL 3 - 0 CAR	STL	CAR
2024-11-17	CAR 4 - 1 STL	CAR	CAR
2024-10-19	STL 4 - 3 CAR	STL	STL
2024-04-12	STL 2 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	14	2	1.32
1	STL	2	0	0.06
2	CAR	17	0	1.19
2	STL	11	0	0.83
3	CAR	17	1	0.68
3	STL	10	2	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown