Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 7 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 51.9%

EDM: 48.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.11

EDM: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	DAL	EDM
Season SV%	0.907	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	32	30	2	93.8%	3.16	4	1.16
EDM	Tristan Jarry	27	20	7	74.1%	3.32	5	-3.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • DAL at home vs EDM: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	1	0.80
1	EDM	6	1	0.32
2	DAL	12	2	1.43
2	EDM	16	0	1.09
3	DAL	9	2	1.09
3	EDM	22	3	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown