Philadelphia Flyers at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 62.4%

PHI: 37.6%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.17

PHI: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	MIN	PHI
Season SV%	0.928	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	30	27	3	90.0%	3.31	3	0.31
PHI	Dan Vladar	24	22	2	91.7%	3.20	1	1.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs PHI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	MIN 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	MIN
2025-10-18	PHI 2 - 1 MIN	PHI	PHI
2024-12-14	MIN 4 - 1 PHI	MIN	MIN
2024-10-26	PHI 7 - 5 MIN	PHI	PHI
2024-01-12	MIN 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	9	1	1.05
1	PHI	16	0	0.84
2	MIN	16	0	1.13
2	PHI	11	0	0.46
3	MIN	14	0	0.88
3	PHI	8	1	0.50
4	MIN	1	0	0.00
4	PHI	5	1	0.60
5	MIN	3	0	0.13
5	PHI	3	1	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8