New York Rangers at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 6 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 52.9%

NYR: 47.1%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.38

NYR: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	WPG	NYR
Season SV%	0.907	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	17	11	6	64.7%	2.85	2	-3.15
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	26	23	3	88.5%	3.10	1	0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs NYR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	NYR 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	NYR
2026-03-12	WPG 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	WPG
2025-03-11	WPG 2 - 1 NYR	WPG	WPG
2024-11-12	NYR 3 - 6 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-03-19	NYR 2 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	9	0	0.51
1	NYR	6	0	0.36
2	WPG	18	0	1.34
2	NYR	13	0	0.58
3	WPG	16	1	1.25
3	NYR	15	2	1.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown