Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2026-03-12 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 51.0%
PIT: 49.0%
Expected Goals
VGK: 2.67
PIT: 3.44
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | VGK | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs PIT: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | VGK 6 - 2 PIT | VGK | VGK |
| 2026-03-01 | PIT 5 - 0 VGK | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-03-11 | PIT 3 - 2 VGK | PIT | VGK |
| 2025-03-07 | VGK 4 - 0 PIT | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-01-20 | VGK 3 - 2 PIT | VGK | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:41 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 05:02 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 08:26 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 09:20 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 16:22 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 04:35 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 06:20 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 19:01 | VGK | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 51.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 2.7 - 3.4
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.