Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 44.5%

COL: 55.5%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.78

COL: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	WPG	COL
Season SV%	0.907	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	29	28	1	96.6%	3.34	2	2.34
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	18	15	3	83.3%	2.80	4	-0.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • WPG at home vs COL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	COL 2 - 4 WPG	WPG	COL
2026-03-26	WPG 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-14	WPG 3 - 1 COL	WPG	COL
2025-12-19	COL 3 - 2 WPG	COL	COL
2025-01-22	COL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	6	0	0.15
1	COL	11	0	0.60
2	WPG	10	2	0.97
2	COL	18	0	1.08
3	WPG	15	2	1.68
3	COL	23	2	1.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown