New York Rangers at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 2 - 4 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 56.6%

NYR: 43.4%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.60

NYR: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	MIN	NYR
Season SV%	0.912	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	18	14	4	77.8%	2.35	2	-1.65
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	48	46	2	95.8%	4.13	3	2.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs NYR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	MIN 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	MIN
2025-10-20	NYR 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	NYR
2025-04-02	NYR 5 - 4 MIN	NYR	NYR
2025-03-13	MIN 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	NYR
2023-11-09	NYR 4 - 1 MIN	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	9	0	0.58
1	NYR	12	1	0.91
2	MIN	26	2	1.90
2	NYR	11	0	0.71
3	MIN	27	1	1.65
3	NYR	5	1	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown