Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2026-03-14 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (SO)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 70.5%
TOR: 29.5%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.51
TOR: 2.48
Total Goals
Median: 5.6
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | BUF | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.904 | 0.873 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BUF at home vs TOR: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | BUF 3 - 2 TOR | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-01-27 | TOR 4 - 7 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-10-25 | TOR 4 - 3 BUF | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-10-24 | BUF 5 - 3 TOR | BUF | TOR |
| 2025-04-15 | BUF 0 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 70.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.5 - 2.5
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