Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 62.5%

TOR: 37.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.51

TOR: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	BUF	TOR
Season SV%	0.906	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	19	17	2	89.5%	2.40	1	0.40
TOR	Joseph Woll	35	31	4	88.6%	5.66	4	1.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BUF at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	1	1.04
1	TOR	13	0	1.00
2	BUF	24	1	1.86
2	TOR	7	1	0.68
3	BUF	18	0	0.81
3	TOR	6	0	0.31
4	BUF	3	0	0.33
4	TOR	2	0	0.26
5	BUF	3	2	1.63
5	TOR	2	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7