Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (SO)

Win Probability

BUF: 66.9%

TOR: 33.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.60

TOR: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • BUF at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	1	1.04
1	TOR	13	0	1.00
2	BUF	24	1	1.86
2	TOR	7	1	0.68
3	BUF	18	0	0.81
3	TOR	6	0	0.31
4	BUF	3	0	0.33
4	TOR	2	0	0.26
5	BUF	3	2	1.63
5	TOR	2	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8