San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 62.5%

SJS: 37.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.58

SJS: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs SJS: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	MTL 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	MTL
2026-03-03	SJS 7 - 5 MTL	SJS	MTL
2025-02-27	MTL 4 - 3 SJS	MTL	MTL
2025-02-04	SJS 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-01-11	MTL 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	23	2	1.86
1	SJS	17	3	1.96
2	MTL	8	0	0.48
2	SJS	8	1	0.86
3	MTL	16	1	0.88
3	SJS	16	3	2.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8