Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 49.3%

CAR: 50.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.92

CAR: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	TBL	CAR
Season SV%	0.913	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	35	31	4	88.6%	4.49	5	0.49
CAR	Frederik Andersen	19	17	2	89.5%	2.49	2	0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TBL at home vs CAR: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	TBL
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	0.95
1	CAR	18	3	2.04
2	TBL	11	1	1.07
2	CAR	15	0	0.64
3	TBL	5	1	0.46
3	CAR	19	2	1.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown