Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Win Probability

TBL: 45.6%

CAR: 54.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.07

CAR: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs CAR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	TBL
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	0.95
1	CAR	18	3	2.04
2	TBL	11	1	1.07
2	CAR	15	0	0.64
3	TBL	5	1	0.46
3	CAR	19	2	1.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2