Calgary Flames at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

NYI: 51.7%

CGY: 48.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.26

CGY: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYI at home vs CGY: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	NYI 3 - 2 CGY	NYI	NYI
2026-01-17	CGY 4 - 2 NYI	CGY	CGY
2025-03-22	NYI 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	NYI
2024-11-19	CGY 2 - 1 NYI	CGY	NYI
2024-02-10	NYI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	16	4	1.68
1	CGY	14	1	1.27
2	NYI	11	0	0.70
2	CGY	11	0	0.52
3	NYI	11	0	0.47
3	CGY	19	1	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0