Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 54.9%

CBJ: 45.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.90

CBJ: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Stat	PHI	CBJ
Season SV%	0.910	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.62

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	31	29	2	93.5%	3.10	1	1.10
CBJ	Jet Greaves	22	21	1	95.5%	3.41	2	2.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • PHI at home vs CBJ: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PHI 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2026-03-14	PHI 1 - 2 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2026-01-28	CBJ 5 - 3 PHI	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-15	PHI 0 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2025-01-14	CBJ 3 - 2 PHI	CBJ	CBJ

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	10	2	1.28
1	CBJ	19	0	1.10
2	PHI	8	0	0.64
2	CBJ	11	0	0.37
3	PHI	11	0	0.75
3	CBJ	10	0	0.41
4	PHI	3	0	0.50
4	CBJ	1	0	0.10
5	PHI	3	0	0.24
5	CBJ	3	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1