Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 64.9%

DET: 35.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.75

DET: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	DAL	DET
Season SV%	0.907	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	24	22	2	91.7%	3.36	4	1.36
DET	John Gibson	24	21	3	87.5%	2.81	1	-0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • DAL at home vs DET: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	DAL 3 - 2 DET	DAL	DAL
2025-12-23	DET 4 - 3 DAL	DET	DET
2025-04-14	DET 6 - 4 DAL	DET	DET
2025-01-19	DAL 4 - 1 DET	DAL	DAL
2024-01-23	DET 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	0	0.64
1	DET	10	1	0.80
2	DAL	16	1	1.25
2	DET	9	0	0.67
3	DAL	12	0	0.82
3	DET	20	3	1.82
4	DAL	1	0	0.10
4	DET	2	0	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.8 - 2.8