Pittsburgh Penguins at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-03-14 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 53.7%

PIT: 46.3%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.09

PIT: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	UTA	PIT
Season SV%	0.895	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	23	19	4	82.6%	2.52	4	-1.48
PIT	Stuart Skinner	29	26	3	89.7%	3.88	1	0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • UTA at home vs PIT: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	UTA 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	UTA
2025-12-14	PIT 4 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-01-29	UTA 2 - 3 PIT	PIT	UTA
2024-11-23	PIT 1 - 6 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	17	1	1.42
1	PIT	13	1	0.86
2	UTA	14	0	1.08
2	PIT	9	1	0.61
3	UTA	16	0	1.37
3	PIT	11	2	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown