St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-03-15 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 2 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 48.2%

STL: 51.8%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.93

STL: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	WPG	STL
Season SV%	0.880	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.49	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Eric Comrie	31	29	2	93.5%	3.87	2	1.87
STL	Jordan Binnington	16	13	3	81.2%	2.84	3	-0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs STL: 9-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	STL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	STL
2026-03-15	WPG 3 - 2 STL	WPG	STL
2026-01-20	WPG 3 - 1 STL	WPG	WPG
2025-12-17	STL 1 - 0 WPG	STL	WPG
2025-05-04	WPG 4 - 3 STL	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	10	0	0.65
1	STL	13	0	0.84
2	WPG	11	1	1.23
2	STL	11	0	0.75
3	WPG	10	2	0.95
3	STL	20	2	2.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown