San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-03-15 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 7 - 4 San Jose Sharks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 73.1%

SJS: 26.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 4.09

SJS: 2.38

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

SJS

L. Brossoit

Stat	OTT	SJS
Season SV%	0.881	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	23	19	4	82.6%	1.99	2	-2.01
SJS	L. Brossoit	25	18	7	72.0%	5.14	4	-1.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • OTT at home vs SJS: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	OTT 7 - 4 SJS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-22	SJS 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-01	OTT 5 - 3 SJS	OTT	OTT
2024-11-27	SJS 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-03-09	SJS 2 - 1 OTT	SJS	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	16	1	1.94
1	SJS	14	1	1.00
2	OTT	18	1	1.53
2	SJS	7	0	0.53
3	OTT	14	2	1.67
3	SJS	10	1	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown