Anaheim Ducks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-03-15 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 57.7%

ANA: 42.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.30

ANA: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	MTL	ANA
Season SV%	0.904	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.64	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jacob Fowler	28	24	4	85.7%	4.53	6	0.53
ANA	Lukas Dostal	30	27	3	90.0%	3.68	2	0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs ANA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MTL 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	MTL
2026-03-06	ANA 6 - 5 MTL	ANA	MTL
2025-02-02	ANA 3 - 2 MTL	ANA	MTL
2024-12-09	MTL 3 - 2 ANA	MTL	MTL
2024-02-13	MTL 5 - 0 ANA	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	0	1.15
1	ANA	12	1	0.71
2	MTL	16	0	1.15
2	ANA	14	3	1.52
3	MTL	13	2	1.38
3	ANA	15	2	2.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown