Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-03-15 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 64.9%

TOR: 35.1%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.43

TOR: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 56%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MIN 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	MIN
2026-01-19	TOR 3 - 6 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-01-29	TOR 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	TOR
2024-11-03	MIN 2 - 1 TOR	MIN	MIN
2023-11-19	MIN 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	22	0	1.67
1	TOR	9	0	0.52
2	MIN	17	0	0.61
2	TOR	19	0	0.97
3	MIN	19	3	2.04
3	TOR	7	1	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7