Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-03-16 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

DET: 55.1%

CGY: 44.9%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.28

CGY: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • DET at home vs CGY: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DET 5 - 2 CGY	DET	DET
2025-12-10	CGY 3 - 4 DET	DET	CGY
2025-02-01	CGY 1 - 3 DET	DET	CGY
2024-11-27	DET 2 - 1 CGY	DET	DET
2024-02-17	CGY 0 - 5 DET	DET	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	13	0	1.29
1	CGY	15	0	0.94
2	DET	12	2	1.12
2	CGY	16	0	0.86
3	DET	12	2	1.37
3	CGY	8	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8