Los Angeles Kings at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-03-16 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 4 Los Angeles Kings

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 43.6%

LAK: 56.4%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.07

LAK: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Stat	NYR	LAK
Season SV%	0.910	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.27

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	26	22	4	84.6%	3.60	2	-0.40
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	22	21	1	95.5%	1.89	0	0.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • NYR at home vs LAK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	NYR 1 - 4 LAK	LAK	LAK
2026-01-20	LAK 4 - 3 NYR	LAK	LAK
2025-03-25	LAK 3 - 1 NYR	LAK	LAK
2024-12-14	NYR 1 - 5 LAK	LAK	LAK
2024-01-20	LAK 2 - 1 NYR	LAK	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	12	0	0.92
1	LAK	9	0	0.54
2	NYR	7	0	0.20
2	LAK	24	1	2.11
3	NYR	19	0	0.77
3	LAK	6	1	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown