Utah Hockey Club at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-03-16 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 6 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 52.9%

UTA: 47.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.23

UTA: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

UTA

Vitek Vanecek - 2-9-1 | 0.879 SV% | 2.92 GAA

Stat	DAL	UTA
Season SV%	0.912	0.879
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.44	2.92

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	22	16	6	72.7%	2.55	3	-3.45
UTA	Vitek Vanecek	30	27	3	90.0%	3.40	3	0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • DAL at home vs UTA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DAL 3 - 6 UTA	UTA	DAL
2026-01-31	UTA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	UTA
2026-01-15	UTA 2 - 1 DAL	UTA	UTA
2025-11-28	DAL 4 - 3 UTA	DAL	UTA
2025-04-12	DAL 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	2	1.24
1	UTA	5	0	0.21
2	DAL	14	0	0.80
2	UTA	11	1	0.49
3	DAL	13	1	1.36
3	UTA	12	2	1.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown