Utah Hockey Club at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-03-16 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 6 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 53.2%

UTA: 46.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.20

UTA: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • DAL at home vs UTA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DAL 3 - 6 UTA	UTA	DAL
2026-01-31	UTA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	UTA
2026-01-15	UTA 2 - 1 DAL	UTA	UTA
2025-11-28	DAL 4 - 3 UTA	DAL	UTA
2025-04-12	DAL 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	2	1.24
1	UTA	5	0	0.21
2	DAL	14	0	0.80
2	UTA	11	1	0.49
3	DAL	13	1	1.36
3	UTA	12	2	1.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 6 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4