Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-03-16 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 7 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 67.4%

PIT: 32.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.68

PIT: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-16	COL 2 - 7 PIT	PIT	COL
2025-03-04	COL 4 - 1 PIT	COL	COL
2024-12-10	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-24	COL 5 - 4 PIT	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	21	2	1.64
1	PIT	9	1	0.93
2	COL	8	1	0.67
2	PIT	10	0	0.55
3	COL	17	2	1.49
3	PIT	9	0	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 7 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9