Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-03-16 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 7 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 67.0%

PIT: 33.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.37

PIT: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	COL	PIT
Season SV%	0.919	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	20	13	7	65.0%	2.18	1	-4.82
PIT	Arturs Silovs	27	25	2	92.6%	3.80	5	1.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-16	COL 2 - 7 PIT	PIT	COL
2025-03-04	COL 4 - 1 PIT	COL	COL
2024-12-10	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-24	COL 5 - 4 PIT	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	21	2	1.64
1	PIT	9	1	0.93
2	COL	8	1	0.67
2	PIT	10	0	0.55
3	COL	17	2	1.49
3	PIT	9	0	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown