Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2026-03-16 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 2 - 7 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 63.5%
PIT: 36.5%
Expected Goals
COL: 3.21
PIT: 2.69
Total Goals
Median: 4.6
Over 5.5: 39%
Over 6.5: 28%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 31-6-6 | 0.921 SV% | 2.02 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | COL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.968 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.865 | 0.692 |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs PIT: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | PIT 2 - 6 COL | COL | COL |
| 2026-03-16 | COL 2 - 7 PIT | PIT | COL |
| 2025-03-04 | COL 4 - 1 PIT | COL | COL |
| 2024-12-10 | PIT 2 - 6 COL | COL | COL |
| 2024-03-24 | COL 5 - 4 PIT | COL | COL |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 63.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 2 - 7 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.2 - 2.7
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.