New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-03-17 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 44.0%

NYI: 56.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.84

NYI: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	TOR	NYI
Season SV%	0.914	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	34	31	3	91.2%	3.57	0	0.57
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	27	26	1	96.3%	2.47	3	1.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • TOR at home vs NYI: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	TOR 2 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	0	0.79
1	NYI	19	0	1.32
2	TOR	12	2	0.83
2	NYI	14	0	1.05
3	TOR	16	1	0.85
3	NYI	20	0	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown