New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-03-17 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 New York Islanders

Win Probability

TOR: 41.9%

NYI: 58.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.78

NYI: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs NYI: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NYI
2024-12-31	TOR 3 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	0	0.79
1	NYI	19	0	1.32
2	TOR	12	2	0.83
2	NYI	14	0	1.05
3	TOR	16	1	0.85
3	NYI	20	0	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3