Nashville Predators at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-03-17 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 4 Nashville Predators (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 53.8%

NSH: 46.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.23

NSH: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Stat	WPG	NSH
Season SV%	0.907	0.897
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.93

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	24	20	4	83.3%	3.25	2	-0.75
NSH	Juuse Saros	40	37	3	92.5%	4.44	2	1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • WPG at home vs NSH: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	WPG 3 - 4 NSH	NSH	WPG
2025-11-29	NSH 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	NSH
2025-10-18	WPG 4 - 1 NSH	WPG	WPG
2025-02-27	NSH 2 - 1 WPG	NSH	WPG
2025-01-07	WPG 5 - 2 NSH	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	15	0	1.01
1	NSH	9	1	0.84
2	WPG	20	2	1.75
2	NSH	12	0	0.58
3	WPG	15	0	1.09
3	NSH	10	0	0.35
4	WPG	7	0	0.41
4	NSH	6	0	0.48
5	WPG	3	0	0.17
5	NSH	2	1	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 4 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0