San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-03-17 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 3 San Jose Sharks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 63.7%

SJS: 36.3%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.36

SJS: 2.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	EDM	SJS
Season SV%	0.883	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	30	27	3	90.0%	3.35	3	0.35
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	37	32	5	86.5%	3.44	2	-1.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • EDM at home vs SJS: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	SJS 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-03-17	EDM 5 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2026-02-28	SJS 5 - 4 EDM	SJS	EDM
2026-01-29	EDM 4 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2025-04-16	SJS 0 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	0	0.70
1	SJS	12	0	0.72
2	EDM	17	1	1.02
2	SJS	21	2	1.44
3	EDM	17	1	1.71
3	SJS	16	1	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown