Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-03-17 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 59.9%

BUF: 40.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.23

BUF: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • VGK at home vs BUF: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	VGK 0 - 2 BUF	BUF	VGK
2026-03-03	BUF 3 - 2 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-03-15	BUF 4 - 3 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-01-04	VGK 3 - 1 BUF	VGK	VGK
2024-03-02	BUF 7 - 2 VGK	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	19	0	1.52
1	BUF	15	0	1.06
2	VGK	12	0	0.97
2	BUF	14	1	0.85
3	VGK	16	0	0.81
3	BUF	9	2	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0