Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2026-03-17 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 2 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 57.3%
BUF: 42.7%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.19
BUF: 3.19
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
| Stat | VGK | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.847 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.893 | 0.931 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • VGK at home vs BUF: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | VGK 0 - 2 BUF | BUF | VGK |
| 2026-03-03 | BUF 3 - 2 VGK | BUF | VGK |
| 2025-03-15 | BUF 4 - 3 VGK | BUF | VGK |
| 2025-01-04 | VGK 3 - 1 BUF | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-03-02 | BUF 7 - 2 VGK | BUF | BUF |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 2.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 2 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.2 - 3.2
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